Sorry I haven't done these in a few days, I have been busy lately.
Scott Bakula is in my mind, not the best supporting player in Behind the Candelabra, nor the one I would have gave the nomination if I were running the show. That being said, Bakula was good and had a good character in there. I don't think that he could break through as a winner though.
James Cromwell has got four career nominations for an Emmy, including this one, and not a single win. This year, it could finally be his year for his performance in American Horror Story: Asylum. While the show is genre, and the genre bias could still play here, the acting is just so good. Especially with Cromwell, the show benefits from chilling characters played thrillingly by great actors. The fact that he never won, and that he is so frightening on the show could be enough to give him his first, and well deserved Emmy.
For The Big C's final "season", John Benjamin Hickey broke through when he never was able to do before. He got a Supporting Actor nom for The Big C: Hereafter. While I liked the show, I don't think that he will win. In fact, I have him in last place right now. His nomination was a shocker, and while I actually liked Gabourey Sidibe in "Hereafter" better than Hickey, it is nice to see that the Emmys like him and his character enough to make it, but sadly I think that he will only get a nomination at this point.
Although I think his performance was overrated, Peter Mullan is indeed good in "Top of the Lake" playing on the Sundance Channel. The show was riveting and entrancing but I found Mullan to be the weakest actor on the field. Again, I like that he made into a nomination in the first place, but unless they really don't want to go for the two American Horror Story actors, he's a good alternate.
Zachary Quinto was in my mind, the best male supporting actor on American Horror Story: Asylum this year. He's terrifying, quite a pleasure to see onscreen. He is actually, in my mind, better than Cromwell this year, just because his character is so good, and his acting is so good. He has even become a bit of a celebrity due to the successes of the two Star Trek movies, so certainly people will recognize him and his role. I think that if they don't give it to Cromwell, than Quinto is a magnificent alternate.
Will Win: James Cromwell
Should Win: Zachary Quinto
Could Win: Peter Mullan
Should Have Been Nominated: Jeffrey Tambor
Ellen Burstyn is the best part of Political Animals other than Sigourney Weaver of course. She is a legend, and quite excellent in the role. But Political Animals has been kinda-sorta forgotten at this point, nor does it have the prestige of other Miniseries/TV Movie, but I suspect that she could still get votes just because she's a legend, and because some people may be turned off my American Horror Story's more genre-based stuff.
Sarah Paulson is the best female supporting performance on AHS: Asylum this year. Truly something to withhold. I think that she would have enough to pull through. There is the possibility that the bias on the fact that AHS is very genre oriented, but I think that that will not factor, because Paulson is just so good.
Charlotte Rampling is the big surprise of this year. For BBC One's "Restless", it's a show that I don't watch and that I wasn't aware of. While this surprise is not the BBC America surprise that most people expected (that being Tatiana Maslany for Orphan Black), I think that people could vote for her as a consolation prize, but even this is unlikely. Sorry, Rampling. Hope you are happy with the nomination.
In all honesty, The Girl is not my favourite show, Imelda Staunton, on the other hand, is actually quite good on the show. The voters could recognize Staunton's name and realize that she's a legendary name in the industry, which could benefit votes, but other than Rampling, I think that she is also pretty low down there.
Alfre Woodard, much like Burstyn, is an Emmy legend, a bit of the Meryl Streep of the Emmy world. Her role in Steel Magnolias, the show, by the way, is overrated, is a good performance. The fact that she is Woodard, in my mind, could give her a big edge in the competition. Again, the genre bias could come into play here, but I still think that Paulson has the highest likelihood of winning.
Will Win/Should Win: Sarah Paulson
Could Win: Ellen Burstyn or Alfre Woodard
Should Have Been Nominated: Lily Rabe