Jonathan Banks plays Mike on Breaking Bad, also submitting for the "Say My Name" episode. While having a grizzled performance, and a pretty memorable death scene, I am questioning the Breaking Bad split. Remember, he is in the same category as two-time champ Aaron Paul, for the same show, for a less notable role. In my opinion, that may bode well for Banks. But because his character is memorable and because his character died last season, this will be the final time they can honor him, which may be too much for voters to pass up.
It should be noted that the Emmys must really like Bobby Cannavale. Personally, I think he's alright, but for the Emmys to give him two nominations for two shows he didn't really deserve this year must leave something to be desired about your acting. This time around, it's for Boardwalk Empire. While Boardwalk, in my opinion, had a great first season, had stooped down over the years. It's still an okay program, but it wouldn't be my first choice. That being said, not sure how many people actually watch or like the show anymore, that may spell disaster for Cannavale.
Another contender who is more liked by the Emmys than I thought is Jim Carter, nominated for his performance as Charles Carson on Downton Abbey. When it was announced that Brendan Coyle, who was nominated last year, was not going to contend this year, everybody expected that Rob James-Collier was going to get in for a more respected role. But with this being Carter's second time in a row getting nominated, it shows that they like him and the show a lot. I still believe that, unless we will be seeing a Downton sweep, he is either in 5th or dead last at the moment.
Peter Dinklage was the winner of Supporting Actor two years ago on Game of Thrones' freshman year. He plays Tyrion Lannister, which has since become a popular character and the show itself has become a popular character. But do I believe that Dinklage (his last name still makes me giggle) could pull it off again? I don't think so. He faces stiff competition, especially along the way of Patinkin and the two Breaking Bad boys. I think that he still may be fresh in people's minds, but I'm not sure if he could do it again, especially since Nikolaj Coster-Waldau has been regarded as better this year, and he didn't even make a nomination.
Arguably the biggest legend on this list, Mandy Patinkin gets a nomination for Homeland. After, in my opinion, scandalously getting shut out last year, he manages to get in this year. He's in a position too. He's the most famous name here, he has a good character, he picked a great episode submission, Homeland is as popular as ever. I think that he could be a potential spoiler for the award this year...
...that is if Aaron Paul doesn't steal it. One thing I have learned is that history is doomed to repeat itself. Paul, who plays Jesse Pinkman on Breaking Bad, is a two-time winner in the past, and while a third win in this category is rare, I think that he could pull it off. Why? Because Breaking Bad is so popular and beloved and that the final episodes will go going on while they are voting. The Emmys love giving goodbye hugs, and while he certainly may be in the fray for the next and final year for Breaking Bad, I think that the opportunity to award him and show will be way to much to pass up.
Will Win/Should Win: Aaron Paul
Could Win: Mandy Patinkin, Jonathan Banks
Should Have Been Nominated: Sam Waterston
Ty Burrell is easily, in my mind, the best part about Modern Family. I feel that Modern Family is overrated in every stretch of the imagination. Yes, it's a good show, but I believe that it's just all over-hyped. Burrell, however, is actually pretty good. Phil Dunphy is my favourite character on the show, and Burrell plays him very well. Sadly, he's always played second fiddle behind co-star Eric Stonestreet. This year, however, Stonestreet is nowhere to be seen. With that strange, but somewhat expected turn of events due to Modern Family fatigue, I still think that he will pull through.
Adam Driver is a boy on a sitcom called Girls. Ironic, I know. While I still like the show this year, many people think that it's drooped in quality this year. Balderdash! Well... maybe they are onto something. Driver is a good counterpart to the girls on the show, and was certainly a dark horse in the contending table this year. I think that he's too much of an unknown and Girls is too "disliked" this year to even break through. Driver will have to just be happy on the nomination.
Jesse Tyler Ferguson may have my name as his last name, but he's easily my most disliked Modern Family actor. Not because of homophobia, but because I think he's annoying. Even Stonestreet has some likeable episodes from time to time. He is swamped by Burrell and Stonestreet, two winners while he and O'Neill never won for Modern Family. Not a good sign. I think it'll be always a bridesmaid and never a bride for Ferguson this year.
For his departing SNL year, Bill Hader managed to pull off a second (and in my mind, second surprise) nomination for playing various characters on the show. It's a shame that he is leaving SNL to focus more on his movie career, because he was easily the best part of SNL. While his star is beginning to rise a bit because of SNL and Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2 and with him writing for South Park amongst other ventures, he's on the outside looking in at this point, even though he does deserve it in a way.
Easily the biggest surprise in the category this year, Tony Hale got a nomination for HBO's Veep. This, along with Comedy Series, Louis-Dreyfus and Chlumsky's nomination show a strong support for this show. While I am not overly fond of it, I see where they are going at with this show. It has humor and some memorable characters, it may not be awards-worthy in my book, but it has some good stuff. Hale is, in my mind, bringing up the rear. Unless of course, people rally behind him and there manages to be a Veep sweep (that's fun to say...), I don't personally believe that he stands a chance.
Ed O'Neill, on the other hand, has had a better chance than ever before to get a win this year. With Stonestreet gone, it could easily mean that a new Modern Family man like O'Neill or Ferguson could pull off a win. O'Neill is also a respected actor, who sadly wasn't even considered by the Emmys for his wonderful portrayal on Married with Children. This would make a good consolation prize, and there is a possibility that variety could arise in this category, but seeing as how Modern Family is a juggernaut and history repeats itself, I would honestly be surprised if it was anyone but Burrell winning this.
Will Win/Should Win: Ty Burrell
Could Win: Any Modern Family man
Should Have Been Nominated: Any Arrested Development actor